Western States Waitlist Woes

You've struggled. You've raced the qualifiers. You've hoarded those tickets. You've waited YEARS to hear your name get called during that live lottery drawing in Auburn.

Those fateful 300 names get called and yet again, you're not one of them. Womp womp! Western States clearly doesn't want any of my 64 tickets.

There's still the waitlist though!

75 more chances to redeem yourself!

You hear your name! Wahoo! Glorious joy and thanking the heavens begins 🙏🏼 Glasses clink 🥂 Friends are ecstatic and lining up to pace and/or crew.

What spot? Number #52 on the waitlist.

Is that good? It's good right?! Sure, you'll be good...

While there is a certain satisfaction knowing you're on the waitlist for one of the most iconic races in the world, there is also the reality of where you fall on that waitlist. Everyone points out that 2 years ago, all 75 people on the waitlist got entry into the race. This is an anomaly to be sure but it gives one hope right?

After the lottery is over and the pats on the back have calmed down, you begin your daily (mildly-obsessive) routine of watching and refreshing the waitlist page.

For whatever reason, you expect athletes to drop like flies once the horror, logistics and money-pit-of-a-race it is sinks in. But watching the waitlist get updated is like watching paint dry or grass grow.

Excruciating.

You might think this happens quickly in the weeks or months following the lottery but you'd be wrong (see graph below). Presently, there are only 13 people that have been removed/entered into the race for 2024.

Historically speaking (yes, I'm the nerd who created this Excel graph) you can see that April through June are when a majority of people figure out they're not ready for the big dance.

Waitlist changes per month

Cumulative drops by month

So what's it all mean?

Starting with the basics - the average number of people coming off the waitlist is 60 if you average back to 2017. Good news when you're #52.

That's really where the good news ends and the BS begins. You're essentially straddling the fence of being in or out of Western States. Meaning, you have to be prepared for both racing Western or not (which means you still need a qualifying run).

Preparing to run Western States

1. I've put money down on lodging in both Olympic Valley and Auburn (partial refund policy)
2. I'll have to drive or fly in California (partially refundable)
3. I have to convince crew and pacers to be on 'standby' for traveling to the race

Preparing to Qualify (Again)

1. I have already paid for a qualifying race (non-refundable)
2. I'll have to drive/fly to the race (partially refundable)
3. I'll have to find/book housing for this race (partially refundable)

Bottom-line, being on the WSER waitlist means you're throwing away money one way or another.

"Oh, that's gonna hurt. Maybe I shouldn't do it"? said no ultra-runner EVER 😂

Current State

As of the 15th of April, there are still 38 souls in front of me (e.g., 13 people have come off the waitlist). It feels more like it's going to happen than before so I've really started to pick up the training and get serious.

I really hope it's my time for the big dance.